Across the Middle East, nations are scaling up environmental restoration and greening initiatives at a historic pace. From the Middle East Green Initiative (MGI) to the Saudi Green Initiative (SGI), billions of trees are being planted to combat climate change, enhance urban livability, and restore degraded landscapes. These programs represent bold steps toward environmental sustainability and climate resilience.
However, our recent study published in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution reveals a less-discussed dimension of these initiatives: the unintended rise of invasion debt. Invasion debt is the delayed ecological, economic, and environmental consequences of introducing plant species that later become invasive.
In a region characterized by hyper-arid climates, fragile ecosystems, and high biodiversity value, even well-intentioned planting efforts can accelerate the spread of alien invasive species if not guided by science-based planning.
When greening becomes a pathway for invasion
Large-scale afforestation and urban greening require the rapid production, transport, and planting of millions of plants. This scale, combined with the demand for species tolerant of heat, salinity, and scarce water, has already driven a surge in trials of non-native plants across the GCC. Our findings show that:
- Many species being trialed for landscaping have high invasive potential, especially when moved across environmental gradients.
- Fragile desert ecosystems with highly adapted native flora are extremely vulnerable to competition from alien species with broad ecological tolerances.
- The GCC region has limited published research and insufficient monitoring systems for the introduction and spread of alien species.
- Several invasive plants, including Prosopis juliflora, Opuntia spp., and Lantana camara, are still commercially available online despite regulations.
Taken together, these factors are creating conditions for a growing invasion debt, where the impacts of today’s planting choices may only become visible decades later.
Data-driven insights: 63 invasive species modelled across the region
To demonstrate the availability and value of data for policymaking, our study applied species distribution modelling (MAXENT) to predict the potential spread of 63 invasive plants across eight countries. The results are striking:
- More than 94% of invasive plant species regulated in Saudi Arabia can potentially establish in at least one of the assessed countries.
- Yemen, Oman, and Jordan have the highest predicted suitability for multiple species.
- Many high-risk species could potentially occupy 10% or more of national land areas.
These findings underscore the urgency of integrating predictive modelling, risk assessments, and proactive policies into greening strategies.
Regulations exist, but enforcement gaps remain
GCC countries have made substantial progress in developing quarantine laws and invasive species regulations. Yet our online availability analysis found that:
- 27% of regulated species remain purchasable online.
- Several invasive ornamentals continue to be sold in local nurseries.
- Uncoordinated regional enforcement reduces the effectiveness of national bans.
This highlights the need for stronger monitoring, market regulation, nursery certification, and cross-border cooperation.
What needs to happen next?
To prevent greening initiatives from unintentionally fueling invasive species spread, we outline five key pathways:
- Develop nuanced, ecosystem-specific species lists
- Design invasion-sensitive planning and planting guidelines
- Manage anthropogenic and natural dispersal pathways
- Strengthen communication and outreach to planners and the public
- Leverage technology, data sharing, and AI-based monitoring tools
A call for science–policy integration
The Middle East stands at a crossroads. Greening initiatives can either become catalysts for long-term resilience… or contributors to future ecological disruption. What will determine the outcome is how deeply we integrate scientific evidence into decision-making.
Our research shows that solutions exist and can be achieved through collaboration among policymakers, planners, researchers, nurseries, and the private sector.
Greening the Middle East is a generational opportunity. Ensuring these efforts are ecologically safe, scientifically guided, and regionally coordinated will define whether today’s investments yield sustainable landscapes or long-term environmental challenges.
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